![]() ![]() ![]() Section II describes the external trade and exchange rate system as it evolved in the course of 1992-93, highlighting those changes that were most likely to affect the value of the exchange rate, and documents the development of the foreign exchange market. dollar, and essentially on the interbank, non-cash exchange rate quoted in Moscow, notwithstanding the fact that this rate is not the one faced by many agents in their foreign exchange conversion operations. Also, the quantitative analysis will focus exclusively on the bilateral exchange rate of the ruble vis-à-vis the U.S. In particular, the implications of the existence of a ruble area extending beyond the borders of the Russian Federation and which underwent several metamorphoses over time will not be discussed. This paper abstracts from several key issues, mainly owing to the absence of sufficient quantitative information. This paper is intended as a first step in that direction. But, over a year and a half after unification, and despite the severe data limitations that remain, it has become possible to carry out a formal empirical investigation of the determinants of the exchange rate of the ruble. In part, this is due to the fact that the evidence on the exchange rate itself and on its determinants was limited in scope and time. So far, however, little systematic and no econometric analysis has been offered. In a financial environment characterized by high inflation and considerable uncertainty, the evolution of this unified exchange rate was the object of much comment, both in Russia and abroad. ![]() This represented one of the major economic reforms implemented in 1992, and followed the wide-scale liberalization of domestic prices in January. In the first days of July 1992, exchange rate unification took place. Through mid-1992, a system of multiple exchange rates operated in Russia. ![]()
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